NFL (0.5 Unit) 7-point Tiny Turkey Teaser (+120)
Buffalo Bills/Detroit Lions Over 47: 11:30 AM CT on CBS
My singular twinge of fear about this over came because of Detroit having a pretty bad offensive showing in their last home game. Home has been where the points are for the Lions lately, but now they’ve scored 55 offensive points on the road the last two weeks, making me feel a lot better about the state of their offense.
We know the Bills are going to score at will against this Detroit defense, but with some defensive injuries, we could see them continue to struggle on that side of the football. The Lions are the masters of late points, so one way or another, this game should find its way over the teased total.
NY Giants @ Dallas Cowboys -2.5: 3:30 PM CT on FOX
I think teasing this line 7 points in either direction is fairly smart, but ultimately, in the shocker of all shockers, I’m siding with my Dallas Cowboys here. Yes, they’re ripe for a letdown spot after Sunday’s massacre in Minnesota, but it comes down to the injury report for me. The Giants are down several starters at several key positions, including corner and offensive line.
We just saw what Dallas can do against banged-up offensive lines, so I’m expecting another big day out of the pass rush that ends up being key in this game. But the Cowboys’ collapse last Thanksgiving against the Las Vegas Raiders is still fresh pain, and they haven’t been great on Thanksgiving lately overall, just 1-10 ATS the past 11 Turkey Days. So getting this down to basically asking them to win the game, which they’ve done consistently against the Giants and the division, feels like the best move.
New England Patriots/Minnesota Vikings Under 49.5: 7:20 PM CT on NBC
My sense is the Vikings will bounce back from Sunday’s debacle here, or at least they should if they have any pride. I think a lot of that will come defensively, especially against a meek offensive opponent like the Patriots. There should be a lot of running out of New England, who won’t want to force quarterback Mac Jones to make plays in a loud and hostile environment.
And the run game might be the best option for Minnesota too. Relying on Kirk Cousins in primetime behind a patchwork offensive line is not the best recipe for success, especially with the Patriots having an excellent pass rush. I see both teams playing this one close to the vest, keeping it on the ground, and keeping the clock moving for what should be another under in a primetime game.
NFL (0.5 Unit) Buffalo Bills/Detroit Lions First Quarter Over 10 (-110): 11:30 AM CT on CBS
Buffalo’s offense got out to a sluggish start on Sunday, which is understandable given the odyssey they had to go through leading up to that game. I think today they make up for lost time and come out firing, as they look to exploit a weak defense and show off on a national stage. They’re excellent in the initial scripted drives, making them the top first-quarter scoring team for a reason.
But Detroit is 6th on that list and should be able to at least counter with some offense of their own to start here. It’s not often you see a first quarter this low when the full-game total is in the mid-50’s, so this looks like a good value play to me.
NFL (0.25 Unit) New England Patriots @ Minnesota Vikings -2.5 (-110): 7:20 PM CT on NBC
Like I mentioned before, the Vikings need a bounce back in this game after getting embarrassed last week. As strange as it sounds, I trust Kirk Cousins in primetime more than I trust Mac Jones. And as I also mentioned before, Jones is not likely to be trusted to attack the Vikings defense through the air where they’re most vulnerable. This does have the appearance of another close game for the Vikings, and with them having figured out how to win those this season, I’ll trust them at less than a field goal tonight.
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 957-796 ATS (+87.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.