Terra Luna price (LUNA) has displayed massive volatility since the onset of the year, dropping around 30% to lose the critical support around $1.49, now turned resistance. The aforementioned barricade has suppressed LUNA since the first week of March, making it the invalidation level. This means that a decisive candlestick close above this level could clear the path for further gains.
LUNA Price Could Ride The Wave Of Altcoin Season
Terra Luna price could secure a northbound move if the LUNA bulls ride the wave of the altcoin season. Altcoin season is an informal term describing the phase where investing in altcoins provides better returns than Bitcoin (BTC) or Ethereum (ETH).
With Bitcoin dominance slowly easing down, the altcoin market is starting to show some interesting activity. LUNA price could benefit if the bulls play their cards right.
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— Keyur Rohit (@CryptoKingKeyur) April 17, 2023
A rough understanding of how altcoin seasons come into play is as follows:
- Fresh capital enters the cryptocurrency ecosystem, flowing into Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins like USDT and USDC. This capital inflow comes as these assets are dimmed ‘safe.’
- Markets begin to rally because of the aforementioned capital influx, causing the profits from the concerned ecosystems to move into altcoins. Notably, this capital influx also includes new capital.
- The capital rotation described above is what provokes the onset of an altcoin season.
Analysis of Terra Luna Price Action
At the time of writing, LUNA price is $1.38, after losing almost 2% in the last 24 hours. Based on CoinMarketCap data, trading activity for the altcoin is also down, showing a 16.37% decline in 24-hour trading volume to $43.2 million.
Accordingly, LUNA price is at risk of dropping as demand for the altcoin continues to wane. Terra Luna could drop to the $1.19 support floor if this price action continues. Such a move would constitute a 13.73% decline from the current price.
The bearish outlook is also supported by accumulating overhead pressure that continues to weigh down on Terra Luna. For starters, the altcoin was battling immediate resistance due to the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $1.39. If bulls manage to use this supplier congestion zone to their advantage, it will pave the way for a northbound move.
Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) was also headed south, indicating investors were leaving the market. If the trajectory continues, the momentum indicator could soon call a ‘sell signal,’ authenticated once the RSI (purple) crosses below the Stochastic RSI (yellow). If market players heed that call, LUNA price could head lower. This thesis is also supported by the position of the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) below the mean line. This, coupled with the fading histograms, suggested bears were leading the market, and LUNA price was due for further declines.
Santiment Data To Support The Bearish Thesis
Based on Santiment data, Terra Luna social volume has been decreasing steadily since March, dropping from 1040 to 148, marking an 85% drop. Social volume is a key indicator because it represents the overall activity of a security or a market.
Low social volume can indicate a lack of interest in LUNA among traders and investors.
On the flip side, if sidelined investors come into play, buying pressure for LUNA would increase, triggering a new wave of demand to pump Terra Luna. In such a scenario, the altcoin could regain above the 50-day SMA at $1.39 before heading north.
If buyer momentum continues to increase above the 50-day SMA, LUNA could confront the next barricade at $1.49 before the end of the week. A decisive candlestick close above this level could invalidate the bearish postulation.
Further, Terra Luna price could extend a neck up to tag the next roadblock due to the 100-day SMA at $1.66 or, in highly ambitious cases, tag the resistance confluence between the horizontal line and the 200-day SMA at $1.77. Such a move would denote a 28% ascent from the current price.
While we continue monitoring Terra Luna price, consider LHINU, the ticker token for the Love Hate Inu ecosystem.
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